My Stock Market Outlook for 2025. Plus— 2024 roundup and why I don't believe in predictions.

This report provides a quick and informative summary of stock market performance in 2024, my outlook for the new year, and why I don't believe in stock market predictions and forecasts.

The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different.’

Hello, dear community!

Welcome to a fresh edition of On The Money Investing.

I typically share new reports on Saturdays or Sundays. However, as we officially mark one week since kicking off 2025 (today), I take this as the perfect time to share this market summary of 2024, plus my outlook for the new year.

Let's start with market performance.

It was a phenomenal year for the entire stock market.

In fact, 2023 and 2024 have officially gone down in history as the best back-to-back years of stellar performance since 1997 and 1998.

Although things slowed down the last week of December (a lot of people on vacation, not enough market "action."), we still ended the year strong.

The top stock market indexes in the United States, which serve as a core benchmark for most investors, are the S&P 500, The Nasdaq, and The Dow.

The #1 benchmark out of those three is the S&P 500.

S&P 500:

This index includes only the top 500 largest publicly traded companies — the businesses that move the world as we know it.

Return on Investment: ~23% ROI*

(*25% including dividends)

For reference— an investment of $2,000 at the beginning of 2024 would have grown to ~$2,466 by the end of the year.

NASDAQ Composite:

The Nasdaq includes over 3,000 companies from various industries, sectors, and market caps. However, the best representation of the NASDAQ index is the NASDAQ 100.

Return on Investment: ~29% ROI

For reference— an investment of $2,000 at the beginning of 2024 would have grown to ~$2,591 by the end of the year.

The DOW:

The Dow Jones is a small index of only 30 companies, most considered "blue chip stocks." In other words, businesses that have been around for decades and whose performance is often consistent and predictable.

Return on Investment: ~12%

For reference— an investment of $2,000 at the beginning of 2024 would have grown to $2,268 by the end of the year.

While the DOW was the "lagger" of the three indexes, it still provided returns of over 10%.

My Outlook for 2025:

We do not have a crystal ball, and no one on this planet can say with 100% certainty how the stock market will perform this year.

If you do an online search for "stock market predictions," you'll come across thousands of results, which, quite honestly, mean absolutely nothing in the grand scheme of things and as confirmed by history.

I’ll repeat this because it is important: Stock market predictions mean absolutely nothing.

Regardless of who the president is, what the economy is up to, or what is happening in the world, the stock market has proven time and time again that it "marches at the beat of its own drum."

As I've mentioned multiple times—

The stock market can be random and unpredictable in the short term but incredibly rewarding in the long term as long as we invest in quality.

While it is important to stay informed, alert, and aware of what's happening around us, making decisions with our investments based on predictions is a dangerous approach that can turn into a complete disaster.

We’re starting the year with a new president who will implement his rules, regulations, and objectives for our country and our relationship with other countries.

There is a lot of talk about taxes, tariffs, incentives, you name it! However, as I mentioned, no one knows with 100% certainty what kind of effect (if any) those new implementations will have on the stock market.

Also, a friendly reminder: The stock market is not the economy.

In case you missed it, I wrote this reflective post immediately after the recent election on my thoughts going forward.

Things like crypto and bitcoin have been gaining a lot of popularity because this new president appears supportive of these vehicles compared to other administrations. I personally haven't tapped into those alternative investments.

One of my core financial goals this year is to keep investing the same way I've always been.

I'll keep an eye out for high-quality stocks, ETFs, or Index Funds that I can add to my portfolio. I love learning about new companies or funds and determining if they can make me money. As a member of this community, I'll share all of this with you, including the analysis I do behind the scenes.

If I don't encounter new opportunities, I will continue adding money to my existing holdings, preferably at "opportunistic" times. For example, when the market experiences a random drop, and investments go "on sale," which is when I like to make the bulk of my purchases.

The last time that happened was in August of last year. I went on a shopping spree and told you all about it: Here and here.

Again, paid members of this community get to stay in the loop about the stocks on my watchlist, what I buy, what I sell, plus so much more. If you aren't yet a premium member, I would love to welcome you.

I am fully transparent about everything in my portfolio and provide updates on any changes as they happen. You can see the original posts about my holdings here and here. An updated edition is coming soon!

I leave you with this quote from one of my favorite authors (Morgan Housel) from one of the best books I read last year called “Same As Ever.”

It summarizes my sentiments regarding forecasts and predictions and why I don’t incorporate them into my investment strategy:

“A decade ago I made a goal to read more history and fewer forecasts. It was one of the most enlightening changes of my life. And the irony is that the more history I read, the more comfortable I became with the future. When you focus on what never changes, you stop trying to predict uncertain events and spend more time understanding timeless behavior.”

—Morgan Housel

And that’s all for this quick “state of the markets” summary.

I am excited about what’s to come, and I can’t wait to share everything with all of you.

Also, remember this publication is designed specifically for YOU. Please click the link below to submit suggestions for future analyst reports, tutorials, content, or resources you’d like to see more of.

May this year be filled with health, blessings, abundance, and a whole lot of profits ;).

— Mabel

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